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Perspectives

Big Week this Week...Hopefully We Will Get Some Clarity

by Fortem Financial June 11, 2018

Anxiety has heightened among investors and the wall of worry seems higher today than it was at the February market lows. Trade continues to be a prominent brick in the wall of worry and while it is a risk, it is manageable in our view. Even though it may seem like the US had a tough G7 meeting over the weekend. Data points (CEO Confidence, capex, unemployment, wage growth, PMIs, consumer confidence) still signal that there is time left in this business cycle and that the economy and markets can continue to climb the wall of worry.

The US is negotiating from a position of strength with economic tail winds around trade agreements. There appears to be a rotation underway in global growth rather than a major deterioration, with the U.S. improving and Europe, Japan and China marginally worse. U.S. economic fundamentals are very sound and there is enough momentum for a June Fed rate hike to be the base case. We may be headed for a 4% q/q annual rate for GDP in 2Q, but it is still tough to see a broad acceleration in the pace of interest rate tightening by the Federal reserve.

Despite headline events regarding U.S. trade Policies, all of the major indices rose last week; the DJIA outperformed with a 2.77% gain followed by the S&P 500® Index, Russell 2000® Index and the Nasdaq with gains of 1.62%, 1.49% and 1.21%, respectively.   Headlines regarding impending tariffs for steel and aluminum for Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and most Asian countries dominated last week’s news.  Notwithstanding President Trump’s statements regarding next week’s announcement of tariffs on a list of Chinese goods, trade talks between the U.S. and China continue. The markets continue to believe that negotiations will ultimately resolve these trade issues.

Elsewhere, the installation of new leadership in both Italy and Spain alleviated fears of any major disruption to the European markets.  This week, President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are scheduled to meet to discuss denuclearization.  Also, central banks in Europe, the U.S., and Japan each meet this week; investors will look for any changes in monetary policies or outlooks.  The Federal Judge will also announce his decision regarding the AT&T and Time Warner merger.

The equity markets have continued to perform well this month against the backdrop of positive economic data. Investors appear increasingly confident that the equity markets are poised to continue their upward momentum following the February correction.  As companies head into the quiet period prior to second quarter earnings announcements, political and economic news will likely provide the market’s directional influences.

Source: Strategas, Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return.  Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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