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Perspectives

Becoming More Concerned

by Fortem Financial March 18, 2024

Stocks fell last week (S&P 500 -0.1%) and bonds fell (the 10-year yield was up more than 20 bp) due primarily to a higher-than-expected CPI. Best sectors were energy (+3.8%) and materials (+1.6%); worst sectors were real estate (-2.8%) and consumer discretionary (-1.2%).

Last week's inflation reports evidence that the glide path for a return to 2% inflation is not unfolding the ways the bulls and the Fed have been anticipating. Rather, in the case of the U.S., underlying inflation has leveled off near 4% (We still see a possible path to 3%, but not 2%.) There has been a deeply entrenched view that all roads lead to low and stable inflation, and thus, substantial rate cuts have been expected this year. The timing of those cuts keeps getting pushed further into the future and fewer rate cuts are now discounted for this year than was anticipated at the end of 2023.

 

Top Economic Factors for the Week of 3/18/2024

9. While Politicians seem unconcerned about the growing federal debt and deficits, the credit rating agencies will be watching carefully as deficits of nearly $2 trillion per year become the norm.

Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 3/15/2024

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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