After three straight weekly declines, equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +2.68%). Corporate earnings, especially big tech, were a key driver. Best sectors were technology (+5.11%) and consumer discretionary (+3.52%); worst sectors were materials (+0.66%) and energy (+0.74%). 1Q GDP came in lower than expected (1.6% vs 2.4%), but internals were generally okay. Core PCE inflation, however, was expected to be 3.4% but instead came in at 3.7%. After last week's stronger than expecte… View More
April 2024
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Stocks were on a roller coaster most of the week (S&P 500 -3.1%, Dow Jones +0% and NASDAQ -5.5%). Dominating the discussion were the geopolitical volatility in the Middle East and hawkish Fed rate conversation. The best performers were utilities (+1.9%) and consumer staples (+1.4%); the worst performers were technology (-7.3%) and consumer discretionary (-4.5%). 1. Fed Chair Powell sounded more hawkish, stating that it is likely to take longer than previously thought to achieve confiden… View More
The breakout in rates, combined with the bid to USD, strength from Oil, and the persistence from Gold, all conspired as motivation to tactically raise our guard over recent weeks. But one of the more difficult pursuits in this business is differentiating between a modest corrective phase vs. the start of something more sinister. Our base case is that this near-term weakness should be viewed as the former, but we’re incrementalists and always on guard for challenges to that thinking. About 45%… View More
In the waning seconds of one of the most watched women’s college basketball games ever, a foul was called. The University of Connecticut was playing the University of Iowa in the semi-finals of the women’s NCAA championship tournament. Officials called a UConn player for an “illegal screen” on an Iowa defender, which helped Iowa win the game. This happened Friday night, and on X (formerly Twitter) the debate about this call still rages. Despite the debate, that game is over. On Sunday, … View More
Why has recession not happened? After all, the Fed raised rates the most and fastest in modern history, the yield curve inverted, and money growth turned negative. That severely curtailed bank lending, as it normally does. So where did the money come from to sustain economic growth? Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific inves… View More