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Perspectives

February 2024

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Will 2024 Be Like 1995, Or 1967?

by Fortem Financial February 26, 2024

We’ve had 3 soft landings -- 1967, 1985, & 1995 -- and many investors believe 2024 will be added to that list. In today’s Narrative, we compare this cycle to 1995 and 1967, drawing some cautionary conclusions. To have a soft landing in 2024, additional fiscal stimulus would be needed (such stimulus definitely kept the economy stronger, longer in 2023). And Congress definitely has new stimulus teed up. If they enact that fiscal support, will the eco backdrop resemble 1995 or 1967?   Ca… View More

January Stagflation

by diego February 20, 2024

A key economic mistake people make is thinking growth leads to inflation. One reason they do that is because inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When money is too easy, first growth rises, and then inflation rises with a longer lag due to excess dollars in the system. This process reverses when money is tight. First, growth slows, and then, with a longer lag, inflation does, too. That makes 2023 an anomaly. The economy has remained resilient, but year-over-year consumer price inflation has mode… View More

Hard Landing → Soft Landing → No Landing → Taking Off?

by Fortem Financial February 12, 2024

Stocks advanced again last week (S&P 500+1.4%) as the S&P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time and small stocks beat big ones for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. Earnings exceeded expectations and treasury yields increased. Best sectors were technology (+3.3%) and consumer discretionary (+1.5%) worst sectors were utilities (-1.9%) and consumer staples (-1.3%).   9. International stocks continue to lag the U.S., with the U.S. averages up 3-5% already this year. 10. Chin… View More

Latest Comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman

by Fortem Financial February 5, 2024

Most all his comments are speculative (Like Transitory Inflation was at the time), except the one on our national debt.   Is anyone in DC listening? Coming off a sizzling jobs report, which showed non-farm payrolls accelerating by 353,000 in January, investors tuned into the latest commentary from Jay Powell, who appeared on a 60 Minutes episode aired on Sunday. The Fed Chair was quick to highlight the robust U.S. economy and path towards a soft landing, as well as inflation that has come do… View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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