Perspectives

The buzz (can we say, vibe?) surrounding the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is undeniable. But the question remains: can DOGE truly deliver on their promise to reduce government spending? Proposing an extensive list of programs to cut is one thing—implementing those cuts is another. This isn’t the first time a president has launched a commission to identify ways to trim government expenses. The best comparison to today’s DOGE is the Grace Commission, formally… View More

Each year we like to post the 10 predictions from our friend Bob Doll. This week, Bob Doll reviews the predictions he made in December 2023 to see how they measured up. He did better than most with his below predictions. We will pass on his 2025 predictions after the first of the year.   Happy Holidays from all of us at Fortem Financial   Summary The U.S. stock market has experienced back-to-back years of 25+% returns. While a handful of stocks account for the majority of returns, most… View More

Until relatively recently, it was a decent bet that the second half of a President’s term would be better for market performance than the first. Generally speaking, Presidents would make the hard decisions when their political capital was at its highest and then it let it rip as they sought reelection. All that seemed to change with the election of President Obama, the introduction of QE, and the budget deficits that accompanied it. Since 2005, the best year for market returns has been the fi… View More

As December gets underway, here’s a quick bullet point update on our “base case.”   The market’s primary trend remains up with 77% of S&P 500 issues above the 200-day moving average and seasonality a strong tailwind through January… …But, leadership is still evolving – Tech’s complete grip on the market has eased considerably since summer and the sector has split (e.g., Software vs. Semis). Cyclicals continue to carry the flag of leadership, particularly Financials and… View More