Perspectives

Although they might register as barely more than a whisper on the decibel meter, requests for our Bull Market Top Checklist have started to trickle in recently as investors start to fear that the market is becoming a bit frothy. With the price of Bitcoin over $98,000 and an artwork that consists of a banana duct-taped to a wall selling for $6.2 million at Sotheby’s two days ago, it is understandable that some market participants are starting to worry about “irrational exuberance.” (Ironica… View More

'Tis The Season   Don’t forget to give to charity As the end of the year and the holiday season approaches, we will all see an uptick in the number of charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email. Since some charities sell their contributor lists to other charities, frequent contributors may find themselves besieged by requests from all sorts of charities with which they are not familiar. Watch Out for Charity Scams – You need to be careful, as scammers out there ar… View More

This previous election has drawn historical comparisons to the election victory in 1980. Both elections underscored debates between approaches favoring government expansion and those prioritizing tax reforms and deregulation. Market reactions to both elections were positive, with the S&P 500 showing gains as confidence in the candidates’ policy proposals grew. Following the elections, markets appeared to respond favorably to policies emphasizing tax reductions and regulatory reform, while … View More

Ten-year Treasury yields bottomed at roughly 3.57% about two days before the Fed first cut its Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points on September 18th. The bad news, obviously, is that rates have backed up by 70 basis points since then. The good news is that our work has shown that this rise has been due more to expectations for stronger real growth rather than growing inflationary expectations. Unfortunately, the rate cuts have not yielded any easing in the housing market as had been hoped. Mortga… View More

Equities fell last week (S&P 500 -1.35%), marking the second weekly decline in a row. Large technology was the drag, with Treasury yields continuing to rise. Best sectors were communication services (+1.53%) and consumer discretionary (+0.48%); worst sectors were technology (-3.27%) and real estate (-3.05%).   Key Takeaways:   Real GDP in 3Q was solid, growing 2.8% q/q versus 3.0% in Q2. Nominal GDP slowed to 4.7% from 5.6%. Government spending alone added 0.9%, meaning private real … View More