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Perspectives

February 2023

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Seven Things I Didn't Know At the Start of the Year

by Fortem Financial February 27, 2023

"There are two types of economists," said famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith, "those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know." This, along with movie producer William Goldman's assertion that "nobody knows anything" are two quotes that remind us to be humble when making forecasts about the future path of the economy and the financial markets. To the extent to which economics will always be a social science and never a hard science like, let's say, chemistry, it is incumbent … View More

2% Inflation? Very Unlikely

by Fortem Financial February 21, 2023

U.S. equities were mixed last week (S&P 500 -0.2%) with some early week strength surrendered in multiple risk-off sessions impacted by economic data and hawkish Fed commentary. Fed peak rate expectations moved higher on a stronger than expected inflation report. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+1.7%), consumer staples (+0.9%), and utilities (+1.1%); worst sectors were energy (-6.5%), REITs (-1.3%), and materials (-0.9%).   Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments   Chart r… View More

Office Hours in Observance of Presidents' Day

by Fortem Financial February 17, 2023

  In observance of Presidents' Day, the New York Stock Exchange and bond markets are closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Our office will be closing at 1:00PM PST on Friday, February 17, 2023, and will reopen on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, at 6:30AM PST.   Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com   … View More

Some Caution is Warranted

by Fortem Financial February 13, 2023

U.S. equities closed lower last week as the S&P 500 (-1.1%) fell for the first time in three weeks and Nasdaq (-2.4%) in six weeks. WTI crude was up 8.6%, the best week since early October. Treasuries turned into a headwind due to a repricing of the Fed rate path. The only positive sector was energy (+5.0%); the worst sector was communication services (-6.6%) due in part to Google (-9.7%).   Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments   Chart reflects price changes, not total return. B… View More

Staying Cautious but It's Getting Tougher

by Fortem Financial February 6, 2023

We first became cautious on future market returns last March and have remained so ever since. Despite some countertrend rallies after the market peaked at 4,797 on January 3, 2022, we continue to believe that the inversion of the yield curve, aggressive Fed tightening, and the likelihood of a decline in corporate profits renders the chances of recession by the end of 2024 at about 3 in 4. Having said that, the tape and the economic data over the past month suggest that a recession is unlikely t… View More

Fed Raises Interest Rates Again. Slowing, Not Stopping.

by Fortem Financial February 1, 2023

The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done. As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points (bp) today, slowing from the 50bp hike in December, and the 75bp hikes at the four meetings before that. However, the Fed continued to reiterate that ongoing tightening is warranted and repeated the view that the risk to doing too little is greater than the risk of doing too much. While we have to wait for March to get updated forecasts from the Fed (the d… View More

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PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

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