In this short essay, we highlight some of the most important drivers for the economic and investment outlook. The essay is not exhaustive on any subject, nor does it touch on the long list of subjects impacting the investment environment. We will be more comprehensive with our Ten Predictions at year-end. Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchma… View More
November 2023
Post 1 to 5 of 5
Stocks advanced for a third week in a row (S&P 500 +2.2%). Small stocks (Russell 2000) were up 5.45%. Disinflation optimism and weaker labor data supported peak Fed and soft-landing narratives. Best sectors were real estate (+4.5%) and materials (+3.7%); worst sectors were consumer staples (+0.6%) and energy (+0.9%). Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to b… View More
Several weeks ago, we decided to reconstruct the S&P 500 by excluding the Magnificent 7 stocks from the sectors in which they normally reside and by creating a new separate sector for them. The characteristics of the new group of stocks were even more surprising than we might have thought. Looked at in this way as of the end of the third quarter, these seven stocks would represent the Index’s largest “sector” at roughly 28% of the S&P 500, while representing only 17% of its earning… View More
After reaching correction territory on Monday, stocks advanced each day with the S&P 500 (+5.9%) posting its best week in a year. Small stocks (Russell 2000 +7.6%) had their best week in two and a half years. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped 30bp for the week. Soft economic data and a dovish Fed meeting were among the supports. Best sectors were real estate (+8.6%), financials (+7.4%) and consumer discretionary (+7.2%). Laggards included energy (+2.3%), consumer staples (+3.3%), and healthca… View More
The Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but whether they are done with rate hikes or simply at a pause is yet to be determined. Today’s Fed statement itself was mostly a copy/paste of September, with some minor wording changes noting that the economy is growing at a “strong” rather than “solid” pace, and employment gains have “moderated” rather than “slowed”. The only new information came with the addition of “financial” conditions to previously noted credit con… View More