Global supply chain struggles have persisted in 3Q, and look set to linger for at least several more quarters. Energy prices have surged in Europe, and transportation issues are creating petrol lines in the U.K. Data from China have shown notable disruptions, though fears of financial contagion came and went quickly last week. “U.S. shipping operations remain clogged as ports, truckers and warehouses can’t find enough workers or agree on 24/7 operations … Tens of thousands of containers a… View More
September 2021
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A black swan event in the investment world is an extremely negative and usually hard to predict event; "Evergrande" has been labeled by some as just such an event. It is the latest event in China to affect the US and global markets. Many US investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have exposure to “Evergrande”, and their stocks are paying for it today. These companies represent more than 120 points of the loss on the Dow Jones Industrial average … View More
BREAKING DOWN THE MAJOR SPENDING PROVISIONS IN THE RECONCILIATION BILL We thought you might appreciate seeing a summary of some of the provisions in the budget bill now being considered in Washington. This is a very large bill, and amazingly, if Congress keeps to its schedule they will have presented, considered, amended, and voted on it in less than 30 days. Because this bill is so large in size and broad in scope, we believe it will affect many parts of the economy. We believe it may also hav… View More
Over the weekend Congress continued to work on the budget proposal and its accompanying tax increases. It looks like reconciliation will be used to pass them. On Saturday, the House Ways and Means Committee released 650 pages of legislative text for renewable energy, social safety nets, infrastructure bonding, and health care proposals. Yesterday, we saw the unofficial, initial outline of the House plan for tax increases, which contained roughly $2 trillion in new/additional taxes. The proposal… View More
The stagflation scare continues. Economic bottlenecks are lasting longer than expected. There have been new disruptions in the third quarter (eg, harsh weather, new auto plant shutdowns). The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence fell in August. U.S. vehicle sales plunged again to a 13.1 million SAAR. We’re lowering our forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter to 2% q/q A.R. from 4.8% previously. We’re relying on inventory rebuilding to contribute to growth, as consum… View More