We recognize that we may occasionally add to the cacophony of market commentary from time-to-time. Here, in one place, we wanted to present what we believe are the most important facts and our current opinions. FACTS Consumer net worth was, remarkably, up 10% in 2020 and is now at an all-time high at $130 trillion Personal savings is roughly $1.3 trillion greater today than it was one year ago The $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package is about 9% of nominal GDP; more than $1 trillion will be… View More
March 2021
Post 1 to 6 of 6
Tomorrow marks the 1-year anniversary of the 3/23/20 market low. Roughly +75% later, the only historical comps even in the ballpark are the first 12 months off the 1982 low (+58%) and the first 12 months off the 2009 low (+69%). One of our themes over the last year has been, unique crisis / ordinary market, and in that spirit, we want to reemphasize how different year 2 off the low looks typically looks compared to year 1… performance tends to be more in line with historical averages and it’… View More
We hope you all had a great weekend. We wanted to share with you an email that a good client of ours sent this weekend. He wrote that we probably know all of this, but he found it fascinating and an easy read. He wrote that he finally understands where we are at and why the markets keep going higher. The article he sent was entitled “Americans have never been RICHER” and the introduction went like this. Contrary to what the media will have you believe, the U.S. Consumer is actually in exce… View More
Spring is in the air and with it comes hope in the fight against Covid-19. We have attached a data sheet to this email that shows the progress that has been made in the US on Covid-19. The infection rate, hospitalization rate, and most importantly, the death rate are all falling rapidly. In the US, there have already been more than 95 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines administered, and the CDC estimates that we already have over 60% of the US population immune to Covid-19. With improving Covi… View More
On Saturday the US Senate passed President Biden’s American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion spending package designed to deal with the economic and health effects of COVID-19. Although there are still a few steps left in the process, President Biden is well on his way to signing into law a very large fiscal package within the next week. Some minor changes were made to the legislation during the Senate’s 24-hour amendment process last night but we believe the legislation will come in just slight… View More
Earning have been great and now we get a huge stimulus we may not really need…Markets should continue higher over the next few months
4Q Earnings Season Wrapping Up The fourth-quarter earnings season is just about completed now, and pretty much all things considered, it was a strong showing across the board. Every sector saw greater than expected earnings growth except energy which was still dealing with extremely low oil prices. That will change in 2021. Sales growth also showed significant improvement with only the utilities and the energy sector finishing the quarter below initial expectations. Earnings Growth To Take The… View More