Because we have been getting a lot of inquiries about Gamestop (GME), AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), Express (EXPR), and other such companies, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the risks involved with trading these names now. We believe that the volatility and risk associated with these stocks are just too great to take any type of position (long or short). The market is a sophisticated "barter" system. It matches buyers and sellers in real-time. Like any other market, when demand … View More
January 2021
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Saving and fiscal stimulus are providing income replacement, so we see no cascading financial crisis. Also, productivity gains and inventory rebuilding argue for a boost to growth in 2021. The Blue Chip consensus U.S. real GDP forecast is 4.2% for 2021; we believe up to 6% is likely. Growth in China has also been a key support for global economic activity in 2021. Manufacturing has performed well (goods > services) in the global economy. For this reason, rising COVID-19 case counts in China … View More
Stocks closed lower on Friday as President Elect Biden released plans for a $1.9 trillion dollar COVID-19 relief package. On Friday, tech shares gained while banks led the decline of financial stocks after some of the largest players released less than stellar earnings reports. This short-term selloff goes against the long upward trend for stocks. The S&P 500 hit a record high during the first week of the year, only to fade slightly last week. Energy stocks led the market last week as oil pr… View More
We have received a number of questions from clients on what we can expect with the new Administration in Washington. Potential tax increases have been the number one question from clients over the past week. We see fiscal stimulus coming in two parts, with the first package focused on income replacement which can pass by the end of February. The second package, which will likely be considered mid-year, is a more complicated legislative vehicle, focused on long-term structural changes to the US e… View More
After one of the craziest weeks I can ever remember, Equity markets surged higher on expectations that Washington DC is poised to deliver more financial stimulus. The Senate runoff races in Georgia were both won by Democrats and they have been promising $2000 stimulus checks to a large portion of the U.S. population. As a result, inflation expectations and a potential rise in economic activity fueled the S&P 500 index to a 1.59% gain last week. Cyclicals led the way as Energy, Materials, and… View More
Happy New Year! As 2021 gets underway, we want to start this morning by highlighting just how rare last year’s price action was. The March S&P low (2192) undercut the prior year’s low (2444), and last week’s year-end close (3756) was above the prior year’s high (3248)… we can find only 3 other examples in the last 90+ years where such is also the case (1935, 1982, and 2016). While hardly a robust sample, the S&P was up double-digits in the year following these past observation… View More