We hope you had a great Thanksgiving weekend and were able to spend time with family and friends. As we make the final push to finish what has been an unusual 2020, we are presented with many of the same challenges that started this year, a year in which many of us wish we could turn back the hands of time and take a mulligan. The global picture continues to diverge. Europe is in an economic double-dip, with new COVID-19 lockdowns having slowed economic activity. With the virus controlled, Chin… View More
November 2020
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Europe appears to be in the midst of an economic double-dip, with new COVID-19 lockdowns slowing economic activity. With the virus controlled, China continues to expand. With the virus not controlled, the U.S. continues to expand. The concern in the U.S. is that activity & mobility have become too quick for virus control (especially heading into the winter holidays). We continue to deal with a non-linear series. With a tested vaccine being produced now, U.S. policymakers are feeling pressure… View More
While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. Although the states have not yet formally certified their election results, statistical evidence compiled by the media strongly favors Biden winning. Until the votes are certified, there remains some ambiguity; recounts will be automatic … View More
We have been asked many times and in many different ways what our thoughts were on the election over the last few months. We must tell you, we look at this purely through an economic lens. There are many social issues that come and go as time moves forward, but our job is to understand the economy and that is what we like to focus on. For months we have been saying the markets are usually what we look at in trying to understand the elections. However, because of the Coronavirus, it has been muc… View More
Week three of earnings season and so far better than 85% of companies are exceeding expectations on revenues and profits. Things going in the right direction barring any future shutdowns from the Coronavirus.
The S&P 500 posted its worst weekly return since March due to a risk-off tone as we enter election week. Mega cap technology underwhelmed high expectations, and COVID-19 cases hit new highs across the U.S. and Europe. The five largest technology firms, which account for over 20% of the S&P 500’s weight, reported mostly disappointing results. While big technology came in ahead of consensus estimates, marginal beats and disappointing future guidance weighed across the sector. Apple Inc. … View More