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Perspectives

October 2020

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Another Reason to be Optimistic Following Yesterday's GDP Report

by Fortem Financial October 30, 2020

With all the uncertainty going on in the world, we have found more stability in looking at the reported economic data. One of the data points that we believe is crucial is personal income. We have shared many times over the years that the US economy is a consumer led economy; roughly 70% is driven by consumption. The most recent report of personal income shows that it increased 0.9% in September (+1.6% including revisions to prior months), which beat consensus expectations (again). Consensus exp… View More

The Super V recovery is real, but full recovery depends on opening our cities

by Fortem Financial October 29, 2020

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a HUGE and VIRTUALLY UNPRECEDENTED surge of at least 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly. Obviously, the US will not keep growing at this rate, but the question remains about how much might it slow? Believe it or not, because we have September data – the "jumping off point" for the four… View More

Market doesn’t seem to be worried about the upcoming election only 10 days away

by Fortem Financial October 26, 2020

The equally-weighted Value Line Index (roughly 1700 issues) is right on the cusp of breaking out to multi-year highs, following consecutive declines of roughly -25% and -45% over the last 2+ years. This is about as good of an indication we have that participation is broadening under the surface. The recent outperformance from small-caps, trading to 5-month relative highs last week, is also suggestive of this positive shift. Continued improvement from credit – BB vs. BBB corporate spreads hit r… View More

GDP Soars in Third Quarter

by Fortem Financial October 19, 2020

There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third-quarter real GDP rebounded at a 33.4% annual rate. We may make some minor adjustments to this forecast when new reports on business investment, inventorie… View More

Markets continue to show strength heading into Q3 earnings season. We share our thoughts on the market’s reaction to the upcoming election.

by Fortem Financial October 12, 2020

The S&P 500 Index returned 3.89% last week, its best performance since the shortened holiday week ending July 2. October has shown a welcoming start for equity investors following a disappointing September. After recording an all-time closing high on September 2, the index slid over a three-week period posting a -3.80% return for the month, its first negative monthly performance since March. Equities opened up on Monday on news that President Trump was recovering from coronavirus symptoms an… View More

What more can possibly happen before the election?

by Fortem Financial October 6, 2020

It felt like we packed a month worth of economic happenings into just one week. The first presidential debate, Supreme Court nomination, employment data continues to get better and many of our countries political leaders, including the President, contract the Coronavirus. Despite President Trump testing positive for coronavirus, equities ended a volatility week higher as investors became more upbeat about a potential stimulus package. While the positive test for the President creates near term u… View More

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