Perspectives

The equity markets rose last week with the announcement that Presidents Trump and Xi would meet at next week’s G20 summit in Japan.  Trade officials from both countries will meet before the summit to discuss a potential framework to restart negotiations.  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, as widely expected, left interest rates unchanged but confirmed its commitment to “act, as appropriate, to sustain the expansion.”  The Fed also removed the term “patient” in characterizing its outlo… View More

The pricing in of political risk has clearly become much more complicated in the past month, as the U.S. Administration has switched from a focus on tax cuts & deregulation to tariffs (or tariff threats) & increased tech regulation/antitrust.  This may not end anytime soon.  The offset will have to be elsewhere, and the market looks willing to give other actors (like central banks) the benefit of the doubt, at least for now.  We continue to stay tuned. Last week, the equity markets m… View More

The Bond Market, a number of market analysts and President Trump were all ahead of the Federal Reserve once again, in calling for possible rate cuts in 2019, even though there were no signs of recession yet. For several months last year there were calls that the Federal Reserve was tightening too quickly by raising rates and reducing their balance sheet at the same time (policy that had never been done before). The bond market signaled that the Fed was more than a little aggressive in tightening… View More

On Thursday, President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico in an effort to stop migrants crossing into the U.S.  The tariff, effective June 10th, would begin at 5% and escalate at 5% intervals to a maximum of 25% in October.  The U.S. has never previously used blanket tariffs against another country; the President’s authority to do so is unclear.  The markets’ response was extremely negative; with all of the major indices declining for the week.  The Russe… View More