As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday. And at this point, the outlook for the remainder 2018 looks largely determined, with both 75% of Fed officials and the markets pricing in one more rate hike in December to make it four for the year. What remains to be seen – and the focus for many with yesterday's release – is how policy will develop in 2019 and beyond. The only substantive change in yesterday's statement was the removal of a sentence noting the sta… View More
September 2018
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Trade tensions continued to dominate the headlines; on Monday, the U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The tariffs will rise to 25% on January 1st in the absence of a trade agreement. Despite the announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.25% while the S&P 500® Index gained 0.85% while the Nasdaq fell 0.29%, the Russell 2000® Index fell 0.55%. The Dow and S&P 500® both posted record highs on Thursday as the longest bull market on r… View More
Significant headline news events were in short supply last week yet the major indices moved higher which has been the path of least resistance. For the week, large caps outpaced small cap stocks; the market leading Nasdaq rose 1.36%, followed by the S&P 500® Index (1.16%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.92%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.50%). Economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index, continue to support the markets. The Index’s 100.8 reading for August is the seco… View More
September began with across-the-board declines in response to uncertainties related to trade tariffs with China and the NAFTA negotiations with Canada. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the markets with a fractional 0.19% loss; the S&P 500® Index declined 1.03%, the Nasdaq fell 2.55% and the Russell 2000® Index lost 1.58%. On Wednesday, trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada resumed but the parties had not reached an agreement as the week ended; the pressure builds… View More
NAFTA negotiators remain upbeat about the prospects of a deal. This will be an "agreement in principle" rather than a full deal which means that while it won't be signed, it can still trigger the formal Congressional review so that Mexico's current President is able to sign it before his term ends and he leaves office. However, on Friday, negotiations between the U.S. and Canada appear stalled in meeting the White House’s imposed deadline. Even so, President Trump plans to notify Congress o… View More