Perspectives

Stocks were up-and-down last week as a mixed batch of earnings reports stalled the market’s momentum. Technology led all sectors with favorable updates from Amazon and Microsoft, and strong pre-orders for Apple’s iPhone X. After their recent, and brief, pause, the FAANG group of large cap technology stocks again led the broader market to new highs. Healthcare lagged all sectors on underwhelming earnings results, particularly among biotech companies, and a shift in industry dynamics. Amazon h… View More

Stocks were higher last week as strong corporate earnings supported the markets’ continued momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, aided in large part by a 10% rise in shares of International Business Machines (IBM), surpassed 23,000 for the first time; the technology giant’s second quarter results exceeded analysts’ estimates. Signs of progress on tax reform also provided some optimism; the Senate’s adoption of a budget resolution could enable tax legislation to withstand a filibust… View More

Markets were relatively flat last week as investors gear up for third quarter earnings season (more on this below). Economic data were broadly positive and continue to point to healthy economic conditions. September retail sales grew at their fastest pace since March 2015, due in part to hurricane-related replacement activity for autos and automotive supplies. Of note in the report, building materials sales were strong, gaining 10.7% year-over-year, while online retailers (+9.2%) continued to ta… View More

As we approach the end of the ninth year of what may be the world's least loved economic recovery, we continue to hear one question repeated, "When do you think it will end?"  And with the media publishing articles like this: "There's more than a 60% chance of a global recession within the next 18 months, economist says."1 "This market indicator has predicted the past 7 recessions.  Here's where it may be headed next."2 "Next recession will hit during Trump's first 2 years."3 "The Stock Ma… View More

If the current economic expansion lasts another year and a half, it will be the longest on record, even surpassing the expansion of the 1990s that ended in early 2001. Notice how we didn't say it'll be the "best" expansion of all-time, just the longest; it's not the best by a long shot. From the recession bottom to the expansion peak, real GDP expanded 39% in the 1980s and 43% in the 1990s. So far, eight years in, this one is only up 19%. That's why we've been calling it the Plow Horse Economy.… View More

North Korea. Charlottesville. Harvey. Irma. Maria. Despite all of the Trials and Tribulation of the last quarter - alternatively scary and sad, the three months just passed was yet another example of just how comfortable investors have become with being uncomfortable. The S&P was up +4% in the quarter, notching its 8th quarterly advance. The index’s average daily change during the period was a mere 0.3%, its lowest since 1968. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but it appears that both bond yie… View More