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Perspectives

A Welcome Pause that Refreshes

by Fortem Financial May 31, 2022

Stocks were sharply higher (S&P 500 +6.6%), breaking the multi-week downward trend. As we covered in recent weeks, stocks rallied on a large oversold condition and extremely negative sentiment. The best sectors were consumer discretionary (+9.3%), energy (+8.2%), technology (+8.1%), and financials (+8.1%); the worst sectors were healthcare (+3.3%) and communication services (+3.6%).

What we’ve found notable about the market’s rally over the last week is that it hasn’t put any dent in Energy’s strength, even as the most oversold groups have bounced hard – some 70% of the Energy sector traded to a 52-week high on Friday, among the most robust readings of the entire cycle. Crude hasn’t flinched either, with WTI pushing $120 this morning and Brent breaking out from its 3-month consolidation phase as well… the likelihood of new highs continues to seem like a reasonable call for both. The +9% rally for the S&P over the last 5 days has us thinking about typical bear market rallies. “Typical” or “average” are words to be used loosely in this business, but 6 to 8 week rallies of roughly 15% are not uncommon in downtrends. Breadth has been better recently than the failed March rally, but the % of issues with a +2 standard deviation advance remains too light to declare escape velocity (just 3% on Friday).

THE FULL LIST

Source: Bob Doll, CIO Crossmark, Strategas


Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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