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2 OF 9 ITEMS CHECKED ON OUR BULL MARKET CHECKLIST: DIFFICULT TO FADE RALLY INTO YEAR END

by Fortem Financial November 25, 2024

Although they might register as barely more than a whisper on the decibel meter, requests for our Bull Market Top Checklist have started to trickle in recently as investors start to fear that the market is becoming a bit frothy. With the price of Bitcoin over $98,000 and an artwork that consists of a banana duct-taped to a wall selling for $6.2 million at Sotheby’s two days ago, it is understandable that some market participants are starting to worry about “irrational exuberance.” (Ironically, the artwork is entitled Comedian. Not ironic at all is the fact that it was purchased by a China-born crypto entrepreneur.)

But of the nine items on Bull Market Top Checklist, only two can currently be checked off – rising real interest rates and heavy inflows into equity market funds. And while the S&P 500 is trading at 21.9x NTM earnings, credit spreads remain tight, there has been no pickup in downward earnings revisions, and the IPO calendar remains moribund. What’s more, fiscal policy and monetary policy are likely to remain accommodative in the short-term. Incipient worries about trade policy appear to be being overwhelmed by expectations for a significant easing in regulatory policy. It would be difficult to claim that the market is not expensive, but it also appears difficult to fade the rally into year-end. Valuation is always and everywhere a poor market timing tool.

 

BULL MARKET TOP CHECKLIST

Bull Market Top Checklist [2000 vs. 2007 vs. Today]

Source: Strategas

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 11/22/2024

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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